nowadays, the teams are somewhat "balanced" kaya dynasty are far from reality. Pwede pa siguro magkaroon ng back to back championships, but a three peat would be rare, much more a dynasty or a decade of dominance.
Anyway, I agree w/ your observations and forecast # 2. I also give my hopes to Phoenix, with the play-making ability of Nash, all-around play of Marion, a fully recovered Stoudamire w/ 28ppgs.. and backup Diaw and Barbosa.
I am tempted to say Lebron's Cavs, being a fan of the King James, but unless he is given a good supporting cast, mahihirapan talaga sya to get past his conference's championship. Even Jordan needed a Pippen, Kukoc, Longley, Rodman, Grant, Kerr, etc...