Twenty one years after being told to pack up and go home, units of the American military may soon be returning to the Philippines.
For decades, the American complex of bases at Subic Bay, 50 miles north of Manila, was one of the largest bastions of U.S. military might anywhere outside the United States. Occupied by Americans since the Spanish-American War saw the islands conquered by the U.S. near the turn of the 20th century, the site was developed after the Second World War into a bustling naval base (with a large Air Force base nearby, as well). Subic Bay was a major part of the American presence in the Pacific during the Cold War, with thousands of personnel stationed there, along with tens of thousands of dependents. The base was a regular stopping point for U.S. ships active in the strategically important region.
That all ended in 1992. The year before, the base and the nearby Air Force installation had been badly damaged by a volcanic eruption, which occurred right at the time the U.S. was negotiating with the Philippines government to extend the U.S. use of the facility. The President of the Philippines supported the treaty, and had agreed to it, but his senate shot it down. The base was a vestige of colonialism, the senators believed, and the Philippines would be better without foreign military forces stationed on its soil. The U.S. was ordered to withdraw from its facilities at Subic Bay by the next year. The U.S. complied, and the Philippines converted the facility, with its docks and airfields, into a trading zone.
That was then. Flash forward to today: The trading zone hasn’t lived up to expectations, U.S. forces have been operating on Philippines soil for 11 years combating an Islamist insurgency and China is flexing its muscle in the region. Last year, Philippine and Chinese vessels engaged in a standoff over fishing rights at the Scarborough Shoals, which is claimed by both countries. After the Philippines sent a frigate to inspect Chinese fishing vessels that Manila believes were operating illegally inside its territory, the Chinese responded by deploying several patrol ships and refusing to permit Philippine vessels access to the shoal. This has put the shoal, barely 120 miles from Subic Bay, under effective Chinese rule.
Who controls a tiny outcropping of rocks won’t determine the future of Asia. But it is a sovereignty issue, and it does have Manila worried. The Philippines has been working to improve their limited military capabilities in recent years, and that has included a plan to partially convert Subic Bay back into a military facility. The new military base there would be capable of supporting warships and fighter jets. It would be a Philippine base, owned and operated by that country, but the government has been clear that it would certainly welcome any U.S. forces that may wish to use the facility.
“We will share our bases with them and I am sure the U.S. would love them,†a captain in the Philippine Navy told Reuters.
He’s more right than he knows. The U.S. has been shifting more and more of its military might to the Pacific, part of President Obama’s “pivot†to face China’s growing might. U.S. ships have been making of dozens of stops in the Philippines in recent years, and access to a revitalized base at Subic Bay would be a great boon to U.S. operations in the region. The politics also favours both sides — since it would be a Philippine-owned facility, domestic nationalist concerns would be allayed, and the U.S. would also avoid the political and economic costs of establishing a new base on foreign soil. It would just drop in for routine visits. Very routine.
The Philippines hasn’t officially decided to go ahead with the redevelopment of Subic Bay yet, but approval is expected soon. That means there are probably some old salts still serving in the U.S.’s Pacific fleet units who will remember Subic Bay well and may soon return there again. Given China’s rising clout and influence in the region, though they may be officially guests this time, one gets the feeling that the Americans will be there to stay.
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/07/03/matt-gurney-worried-philippines-invite-back-the-americans-they-kicked-out/
