Imagine that you’re in a fight with a bully who has taken your cellphone. You ask for it back and he refuses to return it. You bring him to court and the judge agrees that it is your phone – but doesn’t do anything to help you in retrieving it.
So you go back to the bully, and tell him your cousin is in town and he is every bit as as big and tough as he is. You tell the bully that if he doesn’t give you your phone back your cousin is going to dance a jig on his head.
But the thing is, you and the bully know that your cousin won’t do that.
You both know that, big and strong as he is, he will never come to your aid if you and the bully get into an actual fight. Oh sure he’ll posture and bluster for you, he’ll shout and shake his fist at the bully, he will even lecture you on why you should stand up for your rights – but the fact is – he will never get into a fight with the bully just for your sake.
Because for one thing your cousin owes the bully money. Lots of money.
The bully is also your cousin’s biggest customer in his business. And he also supplies the clothes that he wears, the electronic gadgets he plays with, and a bunch of other stuff that your cousin just wont be able to live without.
And so here you are, a bully with your phone on one side, and a paper policeman of a cousin on the other – what do you do? Do you continue to taunt and poke the bully knowing that you have no back-up, no exit strategy to speak of. Or do you ignore your fake protector and instead try to arrange a favorable deal that will get you your phone back without getting beat up?
In case it isn’t clear yet, this is the situation the Philippines now finds itself in. Our big bad neighbor China has decided to start flexing its muscles. And a lot of it has to do with the US flexing its own. And in this great game of diplomacy, we are not even a player – we are just a chip that’s being moved around the board.
Which is why we can’t think and act like they do. That is just a sure way to get gobbled up. We need to think in practical terms, foregoing the subtleties and niceties of the genteel class, and going hell for broke in a way that no one expects. Like a flyweight fighting a heavyweight, in this case two of them, our advantage is in our speed, dexterity, and smarts. The moment we stop moving and allow these guys to get their footing, we are dead.
And Duterte knows this. The constant ducking and weaving is meant to keep them on their toes. He is looking for an opening to exploit, pitting their strength against each other, while all the time trying not to get knocked out in the process.
Is this risky – yes it is. Is it any less riskier than Aquino’s stand up and fight strategy, not really. Both foreign policies reflect the character of the leader that formulates it. Aquino is stoic, stubborn, unyielding – political aristocrat used to getting his way all the time. Duterte is a street fighter that had to prove himself everyday in battles with people bigger and stronger than he is. He uses his brain to out maneuver his opponents, and if he cant he bides his time until he can strike. And when he does, you can be sure he knows what he’s doing.
http://mindanation.com/5336/dutertes-streetwise-foreign-policy/
