Hyde5:
Five reasons Heat beat Spurs in six gamesNow that Game 7 saw the Heat provide championship-caliber answers, as I wrote in my column today, let's look at the NBA Finals matchup. Here are five reasons why I'm picking the Heat in six games against San Antonio:
1.
San Antonio doesn’t have an answer for LeBron. OK, no one has a good answer. Kawhi Leonard is a talented, young forward. He’s 21. He’s in his second year. He’s a rising player. He’s not Indiana’s Paul George. Leonard averaged 11.9 points this year (George did 17.4), meaning he doesn’t pose the same offensive threat as George. At 6-7, 225 pounds, he gives up an inch and 30 pounds to LeBron. He’s never been on this stage and now is asked to match up against the best player in the world supremely motivated for a second title. LeBron is a tough matchup for anyone. He should control a player in his second year now on the stage of the NBA Finals.
2.
Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade face better matchups. This doesn’t mean San Antonio doesn’t have better players. It means they’re friendlier matchups for the Heat. Let’s face it, Bosh wanted no part of 7-2, 275-pound Roy Hibbert and had to work both ends against David West. Now he goes either against either the great Tim Duncan, who is more his size, or Tiago Splitter, who is averaging 6.8 points in the post-season. Wade matched up against athletic George and Lance Stephenson against Indiana. Now he goes against Danny Green and an older player (off the bench) in Manu Ginobili. San Antonio has good players. But they won’t play to the problems of Bosh and Wade like Indiana did.
3.
The Heat maintained their “identity†in Game 7. That’s one of Erik Spoelstra’s buzzwords. The question was whether LeBron would “Cleveland†it again with so many players around him struggling. Instead, he led this team. He called the game’s first play for Wade. He let teammates take 14 shots, getting themselves untracked, before he took one. He understood the way this team has won the last couple of years is to big a full team and have great ball movement – “spectacular,’’ was the word Indiana coach Frank Vogel labeled it in Game 7. So not only did the Heat win Game 7, they underlined their blueprint to winning heading into the Finals.
4.
The long, long lay-off helps San Antonio's age, won't hide it. It was a good thing for the Spurs, especially as an older team. But it could be a problem having 10 days off at the start of this series. The Heat are in a rhythm and at home the first couple of games. The bigger issue is whether San Antonio can hide its age as it has done in having a great playoff run to this point. Duncan (37), Ginobili (35) and Tony Parker (31) are their three core players. Duncan and Ginobili, especially, are vulnerable to age in the same way Wade, Ray Allen and Shane Battier are. LeBron (28) is in his prime. So is Bosh (29). Championship series are referendums on career timelines sometimes as much as talent.
5.
Tony Parker vs. LeBron in the end. Parker was the best point guard this season. He is the engine to the Spurs, not Duncan anymore. No doubt 6-2, 175-pound Norris Cole, a strong defender, will be given extended minutes early in the series to see if he can cause problems for Parker (6-2, 185) early in the series. It's a good role for Cole, who is having a good playoffs. But in the fourth quarter, when games are there to be taken, expect Spoelstra to do what he did to Derrick Rose the previous couple of years. He put LeBron on him. And since LeBron smothered Rose with size and strength, the expectation would be he’d do the same to Parker. He won’t do it all game, considering the expended energy. But if LeBron can "Derrick Rose" Parker in the final minutes, that negates the Spurs’ greatest weapon.
Full disclosure: I picked the Heat to sweep Milwaukee (it did), sweep Chicago (five games) and win against Indiana in five games (didn't see Bosh, Wade, Ray Allen and Shane Battier all struggling like they did).Add it all up: Heat in six.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-heat/sfl-hyde5-five-reasons-heat-beat-spurs-in-six-games-20130604,0,7514004.story
